Paul Amara, consultant, Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre4s.org)

Despite the deadly dangers associated with illegal migration between the two continents, many Sahelians attraction to Europe continues unabated. Figures for 2024 speak for themselves. Morocco thwarted 78,685 irregular migration attempts, and more than 30,000 Saharan migrants were expelled from Algeria to Niger. Senegalese police arrested 4,630 people for offenses directly related to migrants smuggling, whether by land, air, or sea. Approximately 16,500 Malians have managed to reach Europe irregularly, making Mali the main country of origin for migrants in 2024. Africans wishing to travel regularly to Europe face a Schengen visa application rejection rate of 43.1%, with 704,000 refusals recorded in 2023. Driven by the European Union, keen to keep migrants well away from its borders, Sahel countries appear, each, to be handling this issue at their national level. In most European countries, sub-Saharan immigrants represent an average of 0.4% of the population, compared to a 1.4% peak in France.

As defined by the United Nations, migrants are « people who have resided in a foreign country for more than one year, regardless of the causes, voluntary or involuntary, and regardless of the means, regular or irregular, used to migrate. » People on the move, regardless of the reasons. Here, that term refers to all people from the Sahel planning to migrate to Europe, via irregular routes.

Three routes to reach Europe.

Sub-Saharan migrants essentially take three routes to reach Europe.

– The Atlantic route, through which Sahel migrants depart from West African coasts. They board boats of varying sizes bound for the Canary Islands, Spain. That route is very deadly, with deaths and disappearances linked to wreckages and bad weather. Between January and September 2024, 30,808 migrants reached the Canary Islands.

– The West Mediterranean route, from which depart sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East candidates. The journey crosses Sahel and Sahara to the Algerian and Moroccan coasts. An extremely dangerous route, as many lose, among other things, their own lives, in the desert. According to the Organization for International Migration (IOM), 11,423 migrants arrived in Spain during the same period.

– The Central Mediterranean route, which originates in the Sahel and crosses the Sahara to the Libya and Tunisia coats, heading for Italy or Malta. Sub-Saharan Africans also travel through that route, also an extremely dangerous one. During the period in question, 49,794 migrants were able to reach Italy or Malta through it.

These three routes have transformed the Mediterranean and the Sahara routes into graveyards for migrants. The Central Mediterranean remains the deadliest one in the world, with approximately 25,000 people lost at sea over the past decade, according to the IOM. It is noted that more than 12,000 of these victims have disappeared at sea after leaving war-torn Libya since 2011. Countless unfortunates have perished crossing the desert. United, a network of more than 560 European associations supporting migrants and refugees, mentions additional reasons: « Others have died in detention centers due to the extreme living conditions… They committed suicide or died from diseases caught on the road to exile. Some became dehydrated as a result of severe diarrhea. Still others were killed by border police. »

Many factors fuel or encourage these migrations. In the Sahel, these include, inter alia, strong population growth, national economies unable to provide enough jobs for young people, terrorism, and climate change. Nearly 33% of Sahelians live in national capitals, seeking security and employment or fleeing continued environmental degradation (droughts, floods). For the most determined, « they would rather face poverty in the capitals, or across the seas, than among their own home-grown neighbors. » In Europe, demographic decline is taking root while vital sectors are crying out for employ: construction, roads, agriculture (Italy and Spain). Finally, migration constitutes a huge business for various informal actors including, European and African mafias, who encourage it. European anti-migration sovereignism supporters know all this well. To block the path of these thousands candidates to Europe or to death, the EU has entered into agreements with Sahelian countries. As a result, migration management policies in the Sahel result from European Union policies. Niger and Mauritania are illustrative examples.

Niger: a long-time police force.

On May 26, 2015, Niger had adopted the 2015-36 Law criminalizing migration. That was a sort of security-oriented approach, initiated with the EU assistance to curb irregular migration to Europe. From 2016 to November 25, 2023, Niger reportedly blocked approximately 95,200 migrants, particularly at Assamaka, a small desert town, Agadez region, near the Algerian border. Following the Euro-African Summit in Valletta, Malta (November 11 and 12, 2015), and while the EU was experiencing a serious migration crisis, Niamey received significant funding to control flows and reduce the number of irregular migrants. The confidence was going so well that the two parties decided to « shift into high gear » by signing an operational partnership to combat trafficking on July 18, 2022. This new act was intended to allow Niger to improve the impact of the joint investigation team established within the framework of the European Civilian Mission (EUCAP) Sahel-Niger. This good understanding was shattered away by the military coup of July 26, 2023. Following that episode, the then head of European diplomacy, Josep Borell, announced the total suspension of activities and programs implemented with the Nigerien authorities, including those related to border control. The EU decided on other sanctions, some of which targeted the perpetrators and co-perpetrators of the putsch. In response, the new authorities repealed the anti-smuggling law on November 26, 2023, paving the way for the return of irregular migrations. Irregular migration in Niger is no longer a crime. As a result, under the said law, smugglers behind bars were freed and their imprisonment will not be noted on their criminal records, as if the law had never existed. Niger ceased to be Europe’s southern border. It will no longer take measures to prevent migrants transiting through its territory from converging to Europe via Libya or Algeria.

Mauritania, a major transit country.

Mauritania is a major transit country for West African migrants heading to Europe via the Canary Islands, the Atlantic route. According to Spanish authorities, up to 83% of migrants disembarking there transit through Mauritania. According to the United Nations, migrants from the Sahel have increased from 57,000 in 2019 to more than 112,000 in 2023! The crossing is far from a smooth sailing. Indeed, some candidates for Europe may spend several years in Mauritania before crossing to Spain. Most of these daredevils depart from Nouadhibou, Mauritania. Since the reactivation of the Canary Islands route in 2021, this city has become a major crossing point for migrants, accounting for 30,000 for a population of 140,000, or 25%. Mauritania declared itself « fully committed, » alongside Spain and the EU, to combat irregular migration flows. It says it must make major efforts to guarantee the safety of migrants, control its borders, mobilize its security forces, and strengthen basic services. In September 2024, the Ministry of the Interior published the initial results of that policy. In 2024 first eight months, the country expelled 10,753 migrants, a 14% increase compared to 2023. The global human rights organization, Amnesty International, noted that: « This policy of arrests and collective returns by the Mauritanian authorities follows intense pressure exerted on this country by the European Union, particularly Spain, which is seeking to involve certain African countries in their fight against irregular migration to Europe. » This policy is the result of a partnership signed between Mauritania and the EU on March 4, 2024 in Nouakchott, which provides €210 million for that country. At the end of October 2024, the Mauritanian Minister of Defense sounded the alarm: the influx of migrants fleeing insecurity in the Sahel « has reached a critical level. » This situation « is leading to an intensification of the flow of irregular migrants crossing Mauritania » towards the Canary Islands, resulting in record irregular crossings. This influx « constitutes significant economic, social, and security pressure on host regions, » the minister further lamented. The country « wishes to strengthen its cooperation programs with Spain and Europe in general, particularly in the area of ​​safe, orderly, and regular migration. »

The uncertain future.

In April 2024, the EU adopted the European Pact on Migration and Asylum, aimed at managing migration and establishing a common asylum system within the EU. It also supports member states facing migratory pressures while ensuring the security of external borders. The Pact is embedded in European values. Its overarching objective is to create a fairer and more efficient migration system, delivering concrete results on the ground. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen informed European leaders that the Pact will not be fully implemented until June 2026. In the meantime, the Commission published a regulation intended to accelerate returns to countries of origin. It also released €3 billion for the implementation of the Pact, for the period 2025-2027. That is in addition to €1.6 billion from the mid-term review of the various national programs. As a testament to the effectiveness of the new European policies, the president boasts a 38% drop in border crossings by 2024. In particular, the central Mediterranean region shows a spectacular drop of 59%, out of 66,800 detections, with a record 80% from Tunisia.

Still, in Europe a strong demand of jobs in a number of activities remains a reality while offer of national workers remains very deficient!