Sahel : the continued state deconstruction

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Introduction par Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, president centre4s

In the Sahel, violent terrorism—now structural—and various forms of trafficking, including that of migrants, are linked structural realities. The agonizing Trans borders cooperation is dwindling. Deadly and also costly to national public finances, they now are protracted and a hallmark of the region’s identity! Several causes explain or stand behind these developments. All are linked to the fragility and porosity of national borders and, above all, to the now tribalistic nature of Sahel governments. More than ever, tribes and clans are at the helm, to the detriment of national unity and security.

 

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Sahel: Increasing Number of Attacks

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Paul AMARA, Center for Sahel-Sahara Security Strategies (Centre4s.org)

In May 2025, more than 400 soldiers were killed in similar attacks targeting Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The epicenter is the so called ‘’three borders area’’ a jihadists heaven for several years. Explanations abound: a sudden breakdown of the strategic partnership with western powers, a lack of coordination in the fight against terrorism, financial burden of this fight, operational difficulties and military exhaustion, more efficient terrorists’ organization, importance of multiple trafficking routes financing various groups, etc. To cope with, some countries may be forced to request assistance from regional or continental organizations.

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Sahel: the management of its migrants

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Paul Amara, consultant, Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre4s.org)

Despite the deadly dangers associated with illegal migration between the two continents, many Sahelians attraction to Europe continues unabated. Figures for 2024 speak for themselves. Morocco thwarted 78,685 irregular migration attempts, and more than 30,000 Saharan migrants were expelled from Algeria to Niger. Senegalese police arrested 4,630 people for offenses directly related to migrants smuggling, whether by land, air, or sea. Approximately 16,500 Malians have managed to reach Europe irregularly, making Mali the main country of origin for migrants in 2024. Africans wishing to travel regularly to Europe face a Schengen visa application rejection rate of 43.1%, with 704,000 refusals recorded in 2023. Driven by the European Union, keen to keep migrants well away from its borders, Sahel countries appear, each, to be handling this issue at their national level. In most European countries, sub-Saharan immigrants represent an average of 0.4% of the population, compared to a 1.4% peak in France.

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Sahel: African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline a Structural Project

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Paul AMARA, Consultant, Centre4s

The African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (Nigeria – Morocco) or GAA was initiated by Morocco in December 2016 during King Mohamed VI visit to Nigeria. Valued at $25 billion, this mega-project will connect Morocco to Nigeria via the Atlantic coast, crossing 13 countries before reaching Europe. Approximately 5,600 – 6,200 km long, it should also ensure energy security of both these coastal countries and the Alliance of Sahel States (ESA). One of the world best-known pipelines is the North Stream 2, connecting Russia to Germany over 1,234 km and is 48 inches wide. Worldwide, there are 3,859,000 km of pipelines, transporting 5 trillion tons of gas.

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