Paul AMARA, Consultant, Center for Strategies for Security in the Sahel-Sahara (Centre 4s.org)

Faced with Western ambitions to anchor Ukraine within its military organization, NATO, Russia launched its « operation » against the country on February 24, 2022. What was supposed to conclude in a few weeks has turned into a major conflict. While weapons crackle on the front lines, bombs explode, and no less deadly drones hover, Ukraine has begun fighting Russia all the way to the Sahel, supporting the jihadists with military advisors and weapons initially intended for the theater of combat on its soil. At the same time, it is attempting to counter Russian influence with a diplomatic offensive and offers of cooperation in Africa. Its unexpected intrusion into the Sahel complicates the fight against terrorism by the armies involved. One of the strongest indicators of the scale of the fighting is the number of casualties. Indeed, the Ukrainian army’s losses amount to approximately 600,000 dead, with nearly 500,000 wounded and 200,000 deserters. On the other hand, Russia has suffered 110,000 dead and 300,000 wounded. The latest news is not good for Ukraine and its allies. Towns are falling into Russian hands, one after the other. Lablonivka, in the Sumy region, located about 25 km from the regional capital of the same name, has been conquered. In the Donetsk region, where most of the fighting is taking place, the Russian army has taken control of the towns of Komar and Kopteve. It was there that Vladimir Putin announced his intention to establish a « buffer zone » to protect against Ukrainian incursions into Russian soil. Ukraine and the West are now convinced that Russia cannot triumph.

Peace is difficult to achieve

US President Donald Trump, who had promised to end this 35-month-old war in a single day, is discussing ending the conflict with Putin, so far to no avail. Exasperated by the peace conditions Putin wants to impose, he has organized face-to-face meetings between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey. From a position of strength on the ground, Moscow immediately rejects any truce, as well as a summit between Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, a Russian memorandum demands, among other things, Ukraine’s « neutrality, » meaning the abandonment of any alignment with the West, the renunciation of NATO membership, and a ban on any foreign military presence on Ukrainian territory. Russia is also demanding the cession of four regions in eastern Ukraine as well as recognition of the annexation of Crimea. These regions are: Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia. It must be said that the « special military operation » achieved its political objectives by 2022, namely to force Ukraine to negotiate on Russia’s terms. Backed by its Western allies, led by the United States, kyiv rejects recognition of the four regions and refuses to limit its Defense and Security Forces, tempted by promises to send British and European troops once peace is restored. Ukraine is also demanding that Russia pay reparations for the destruction it has caused. Suffice it to say that the positions are difficult to reconcile. Donald Trump is threatening Moscow with new economic sanctions if peace is not signed by August 10, 2025. The same heavy clouds are hanging over the European Union and Great Britain. An ultimatum issued to Vladimir Putin. While fighting continues on the front lines, Ukraine has decided to take its war against Russia to African soil. The pretext? The active presence of military and paramilitary forces in the Sahel, among other places. The Wagner firm was replaced by Africa Corp, and placed under the direct responsibility of the Russian Ministry of Defense. This military cooperation organization has a strong presence in Mali and, to a lesser extent, in Burkina Faso and Niger. It was officially deployed to the Malian front in January 2025, with nearly a thousand troops.

Ukraine’s involvement in terrorism in the Sahel

Ukraine’s involvement in terrorism in the Sahel has been admitted by the country itself. From July 25 to 27, 2024, in Tinzawaten, in northern Mali, « Tuareg rebels » from the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the Peoples of AZAWAD, allied with the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), fiercely confronted a convoy of Malian soldiers supported by their Russian partners from Wagner. 84 Wagner elements, including a commander, and 47 Malian soldiers were killed. The rebels claim to have also taken 07 Russian prisoners. In the aftermath of this crushing military defeat, the spokesperson for Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusof, publicly stated that GUR agents had provided the separatists with « necessary information that enabled them to conduct a successful military operation against Russian war criminals. » The Ukrainian ambassador to Senegal, Yurii Pyvovarof, exulted on social media: « The work will continue; there will certainly be other results. Punishment for war crimes and terrorism is inevitable. It is an axiom. » This admission or diplomatic blunder prompted the three ESA countries to jointly sever their relations with Ukraine. They joined Russia in declaring Ukraine a terrorist state. The Malian government subsequently launched an investigation into Ukraine’s actual involvement in « criminal actions that caused heavy human losses. » The results confirmed what Malian authorities describe as « support for international terrorism. » Western media, such as the French daily Le Monde, relayed and confirmed kyiv’s action. According to their own investigations, Ukraine provided logistical and technological support to Malian rebels. Major Risks for the Sahel

Subsequently, President Volodymyr affirmed his country’s readiness to share its « military experience » with African states. Speaking to an audience of journalists from ten African countries, convened by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he highlighted Ukraine’s desire to strengthen its ties with Africa: « Ukraine is ready to share its expertise, particularly in the military field, to support stability and security. » During the fighting in Tinzawaten, the rebels are suspected of using drones and anti-aircraft equipment with rare effectiveness. The Malian army admitted losing a helicopter there. This integration of drones into the Malian rebels’ arsenal fundamentally changes combat strategies and field tactics. These aircraft provide terrorists with increased surveillance, intelligence, and attack capabilities. They allow them to carry out precise strikes, remotely, and safely. However, Sahelian armies are also using them, increasingly. The only drawback is that without the support of ground troops, these aerial vehicles lose some of their splendor and power.

Ukraine, an arms supermarket

Ukraine’s support for jihadists represents a mortal danger for the Sahel. The United States delivered nearly $66 billion in military aid to the country between the start of the conflict in February 2022 and January 2025. This equipment includes, among other things, ammunition and small arms, as well as portable anti-tank and air-launched missile launchers. Ukraine is ranked among the most corrupt countries. Some of the military aid is reportedly diverted to various trafficking routes in different parts of the world. The extent of this « drain » varies between 30 and 50%, depending on the source. In a sense of urgency and in the midst of a fierce battle against Russia, Western powers have lowered their guard regarding the traceability of arms deliveries to Ukraine. At any moment, they could be resold in the Sahel to all sorts of actors. The intervention raises another distressing question: through which country(ies) neighboring Mali did Ukrainian intelligence agents, with their arsenal, transit clandestinely or not to reach the rebels on the Algerian border? To date, this strategic question, which has remained unanswered officially, fuels many suspicions. From the very beginning of its conflict with Moscow, Kyiv had taken an action that scandalized African governments. Its embassy in Dakar, Senegal, had published a recruitment notice for volunteer mercenaries on its official website. These particular « job offers » had provoked the ire of Senegal. Dakar had expressed its discontent on March 3, 2022, calling on Kiv to withdraw the call to fight in Ukraine and also to cease all recruitment in this regard from its territory. Always keen to thwart Russian interests throughout Africa, the Ukrainian authorities launched a diplomatic charm offensive towards this continent. They began their campaign with a major handicap. Indeed, nearly half of African countries have not condemned the Russian invasion, and despite threats from Western countries, continue their cooperation with the heir to the defunct Soviet Union. Similarly, no African country has joined the sanctions against Russia. Second, its sudden interest in Africa raises concerns about the sincerity of its intentions. As part of its diplomatic offensive, Kyiv opened an embassy in the Sahel, in Mauritania, in June 2025. It is delivering 400 tons of split peas to the country to feed school canteens and refugee camps. In addition to Mauritania, the beneficiaries are: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan. According to some reports, refugee camps are hosting rebels from northern Mali fleeing the Bamako regime.

 This would mean that even humanitarian aid from Ukraine would be suspect.