Sahel: limits of mediation in the face of terrorist violence

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Paul AMARA, Consultant, Centre for Security Strategies in the Sahel-Sahara (Centre4s.org)

Since the rise of jihadists in Mali, 2012, numerous mediation efforts have been undertaken by various individuals and organizations—both legal entities and private persons—aimed at reducing the levels of violence in the Sahel. Given the figures of the number of victims and the emergence of new fronts across the region, the overall outcome remains mixed. The toll continues to rise: more deaths, more internally displaced persons and refugees as well as the destruction of vital infrastructures, while peace is recurrently deferred to some future date. Meanwhile, various forms of illicit trafficking—in weapons, drugs (such as cocaine), cigarettes, gold and precious metals, hydrocarbons and human beings—continue to flourish, often generating further revenues through ransoms. As a consequence, Sahelian societies—despite existing within a modern context—are increasingly sliding toward religious radicalism, ethnic tension, and a process of « re-tribalization. »

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Sudan: a conflict worsened from outside

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Limam NADAWA, Centre for Strategy for Security in the Sahel-Sahara, Centre4s.org

​In September 1989, when General Omar Hassan al-Bashir seized power, Sudan was the third-largest country in Africa—after Algeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—with an area of 1,879,358 km². He steered his country down an “Islamist path” under the guidance of a Muslim Brotherhood leader, Hassan Al-Turabi. Finally, various conflicts eventually led to the secession of South Sudan in July 2011. Seven years later, protests demanding greater democracy and protesting the high cost of living triggered Al-Bashir’s overthrow by the military. An interim government was then established, led by Abdalla Hamdok, an economist and former senior United Nations official. However, military officers – fearing the loss of their privileges and dreading accountability for crimes committed during past conflicts -secured key positions within this government. They ended the transition by orchestrating another coup d’état in October 2021. Two officers came to dominate the power: General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. Their rivalry led to the current conflict. From that perspective, it is doubtful whether the civilian population – longing for a return to constitutional rule and suffering as victims of their bare atrocities – supports either side. Moreover, the United States has accused both camps of genocide.

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Sahel: forests, safe havens to terrorists?

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Liman NADAWA, Consultant, Center for Security Strategies in the Sahel and Sahara, Center4s.org

 Increasingly, countries in the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea are taking special measures to protect forests from terrorist control. In these hard-to-reach areas, terrorists have bases, exploit natural resources to finance themselves, and forge links with local populations, whom they transform into recruitment sources for future fighters. They also engage in smuggling. Involved in multiple forms of trafficking, they administer these enclaves according to their own governance. From there, they also launch surprise attacks against the Defense and Security Forces (FDS). The rampant exploitation of forests by terrorists groups has contributed to the spread of terrorism in the Sahel and then to the Gulf of Guinea. Regular armies are attempting to combat them, using weak air power among other means.

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Sahel: threats on security and development.

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Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, president centre4s

The Sahel tragic dilemma can be, more or less, summed up by this formula: no security without development. That is a dilemma as the reverse—no development without security—is also correct. Crises and conflicts that this region, the Sahel, has experienced since the great droughts of the 1970s and their human and economic consequences have completely transformed the landscape, particularly in terms of human and security circumstances. On that background, many perverse effects have been added or rather fixed on.

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Sahel: Are mercenaries efficient fighting terrorism ?

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Limam NADAWA, Centre des stratégies pour la sécurité du Sahel Sahara, Centre4s.org 

Faced with the immense challenges of combating terrorist threats in the Sahel, states and their allies are hiring mercenaries. Supposedly more seasoned and experienced, they are meant to support national armies and their auxiliaries. However, in practice, their results are more nuanced, while their respective costs are taking their toll on the budgets of the recruiting countries. Their impact on the defense and security forces (FDS) is also a subject of controversy. Will this practice lead to a clear-eyed and rational re-evaluation after the attacks that Mali suffered on May 28, 2026? 

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