Sahel: Increasing Number of Attacks

Paul AMARA, Center for Sahel-Sahara Security Strategies (Centre4s.org)

In May 2025, more than 400 soldiers were killed in similar attacks targeting Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The epicenter is the so called ‘’three borders area’’ a jihadists heaven for several years. Explanations abound: a sudden breakdown of the strategic partnership with western powers, a lack of coordination in the fight against terrorism, financial burden of this fight, operational difficulties and military exhaustion, more efficient terrorists’ organization, importance of multiple trafficking routes financing various groups, etc. To cope with, some countries may be forced to request assistance from regional or continental organizations.

Sahel: the management of its migrants

Paul Amara, consultant, Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre4s.org)

Despite the deadly dangers associated with illegal migration between the two continents, many Sahelians attraction to Europe continues unabated. Figures for 2024 speak for themselves. Morocco thwarted 78,685 irregular migration attempts, and more than 30,000 Saharan migrants were expelled from Algeria to Niger. Senegalese police arrested 4,630 people for offenses directly related to migrants smuggling, whether by land, air, or sea. Approximately 16,500 Malians have managed to reach Europe irregularly, making Mali the main country of origin for migrants in 2024. Africans wishing to travel regularly to Europe face a Schengen visa application rejection rate of 43.1%, with 704,000 refusals recorded in 2023. Driven by the European Union, keen to keep migrants well away from its borders, Sahel countries appear, each, to be handling this issue at their national level. In most European countries, sub-Saharan immigrants represent an average of 0.4% of the population, compared to a 1.4% peak in France.

Sahel: African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline a Structural Project

Paul AMARA, Consultant, Centre4s

The African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (Nigeria – Morocco) or GAA was initiated by Morocco in December 2016 during King Mohamed VI visit to Nigeria. Valued at $25 billion, this mega-project will connect Morocco to Nigeria via the Atlantic coast, crossing 13 countries before reaching Europe. Approximately 5,600 – 6,200 km long, it should also ensure energy security of both these coastal countries and the Alliance of Sahel States (ESA). One of the world best-known pipelines is the North Stream 2, connecting Russia to Germany over 1,234 km and is 48 inches wide. Worldwide, there are 3,859,000 km of pipelines, transporting 5 trillion tons of gas.

Sahel: always and still conflicts

Ahmedou Ould Abdallah President centre4s

Since 2005, the Sahel remains again and again weakened by terrorism! Due to the environment degradation, it is expanding and terrorism is spreading, taking root, and becoming commonplace. This context exposes and further weakens this vast area composed of countries that are often poorly structured to face the multiple ambitions and internal and external threats of more organized, more determined actors announcing to all attractive promises down here and beyond. The continued rooting and expansion of that terrorism – now a Sahel trademark – is reinforced by the bloody civil war in Sudan, still in its early stages, the armed impasse in Libya and the headlong rush of the Sahel states themselves. The return to a kind of cold war remains a useless bet in the face of so many dangers promising to terrorism rooting and expansion. The deficit in anticipation capacities, one of the immense challenges remains to be overcome.